Well, I had planned on writing about something entirely different, but I could not pass up the chance to share my thoughts on the latest developments with Ukraine.
First, a lot of people have already weighed in on Ukraine’s attacks on the first of June inside Russia, an ambitious plan destroying over a third of Russia’s cruise missile capabilities, many planes, a naval base, and also some train lines. So I will not dig into all the military aspects. However, we can say it was an amazing success in many ways.
But I do have some thoughts on the attacks and the impact on the negotiations.
First, the attack itself is devastating, not just because it cost Russia billions (according to the SBU, 7.2 billion USD for Russia). Its annual military budget is huge in comparison, at $415 billion annually, so it may appear not to be that bad, but it is still a significant chunk. However, these planes are old, soviet planes, which Russia lacks the expertise or equipment to replace and repair. That means a huge chunk of its air force is gone forever.
Second, it will now cause further gridlock and delays in Russia as they inspect every lorry, van, and anything else vaguely near a military site. It will also create paranoia and induce friction. The psychological impact on Russia is significant, as, while Ukraine has made many big attacks on Russia, the reach of these strikes is impressive.
Importantly, by reducing Russia’s capabilities, it will, possibly, help Ukraine better defend its skies. Of course, there’s a lot left, but to lose such a huge chunk in one go can only be good for Ukraine.
According to people who monitor Telegram channels, the Russian nationalist response is to urge against massive retaliations. Why? Because they know that it will hurt their reputation with Trump, which is already decreasing. The hardcore Putinists and nationalists hoped Trump would hand everything to them and pressure Ukraine to capitulate. It has not happened because Putin has been pushing his luck. Of course, Trump is not reliable as an ally, but he’s not exactly thrilled with Russia’s actions lately.
Now we get to the major effect. Today, the Russians arrived at the second round of negotiations. A cease-fire was not achieved. But, they did not storm out, they will report back to Moscow with Ukraine’s proposal. They looked worried, as many commentators have said. I think they realised a) Ukraine has incredible capabilities with its drones this past week b) they see Trump is doing everything they wanted, and c) their window of opportunity is dwindling. Ukraine has taken some initiative.
Now I am curious, was the motivation to conduct Operation Spider Web meant to coincide with these talks? It was planned for one and a half years. 2023 was a very different time for Ukraine. But they may have initiated it now to put pressure on Russia. Russian propagandist and nationalists in Russia say they did it to ruin the negotiations. I don’t think that is entirely true, but the timing is interesting to say the least. They respond better to force than to appeasement, to an extent anyway, and ultimately, they realise Ukraine is still very capable of inflicting serious damage.
This attack is not new. Ukraine has had many operations inside Russia. Some have ignored this and made it out that this is the first time Russia has felt pain at home. Blatantly untrue, considering Kursk, Belgorod, the loss of the black sea fleet, operations prior to the full-scale invasion, and other activities. This was the biggest operation, however, and it is significant.
Ukraine has managed a true feat. It can only work in its favour. The russian propagandists from the west, however, are convinced now the “gloves are off” and talk about reprisals. Reprisals like they’ve already been doing? I don’t see how they could escalate, and if even the most bloodthirsty russians warn against that, I doubt it. Plus, the gloves have been off since 2022. It’s a bizarre delusion.
Ukraine has leverage now. We have to wait to see how Trump responds. He may dislike he did not know about it. He may respond warmly that Ukraine shows strength. Who knows. But it’s not all about him either.
What will happen next is to be seen. And there is a lot about this operation I would love to know, but I suppose we probably never will.
One last thought, yesterday was one of the first big wins for Ukrainians at home. Memes, jokes, cheers, and all sorts of celebratory actions. They haven’t had a win like this in a long time, and it goes a long way for morale.
Leave a Reply