What are the upcoming challenges for Ukraine? It may feel a lot right now, people are not exactly feeling optimistic with Trump’s inauguration and first set of actions, and many are experiencing anxiety about the future. However, we have to remember, the world is not the USA, as much as some may insist otherwise. At least in the context of Ukraine, there are some reasons to not give in to panic, although, we have to identify the challenges as well.
As we enter 2025, with Trump’s ascension, and lots of people, some bigger brained than others, discussing and expecting some end to the conflict, it is worth considering, seriously, what exactly does Ukraine need to win or, at least, be in a strong position for negotiations? Are there reasons to be optimistic as well? The short answer, yes, with a but.
We also need to ask about the post-war challenges, but I will write about that separately. Here, I break down some of the key issues and relate them to what Ukraine needs from the international community in any peace talks, and other political acts worth considering internally.
- Manpower
Ukrainian soldiers are not of the same motivation they were at the start of the full scale invasion. This is undeniable. While many also may want to fight, they are afraid of being utilised in a poor way. Mobilisation was also, arguably, slow, as Zaluzhny stated before being swapped out, but held off due to political and economic anxieties (understandable, I will say). Now, there is still a lack of soldiers, rest for those fighting, and soldiers who signed up voluntarily. The biggest issue, at least on an internal level, I argue, is the recruitment process.
Ukrainian recruitment has been, frankly, disastrous. It is not propaganda to criticise the recruiters and the process. Nor is it a fringe view to criticise the process, which has sometimes involved taking people who are not meant to be anywhere near the army off the street, or to argue that the allocation of manpower has been badly done. Only now they have changed the process to put new recruits into existing units rather than making newer ones, a welcome move, but done very late. We also have a real lack of utilisation of draftees for their particular skill sets.
Putting that aside, it may be an uncomfortable truth that more men need to be drafted. Ideally, the drafting measures must be improved, allowing for more choice, specialisation, and less aggressive acts putting people off volunteering. Some may argue to lower the age of conscription. I understand that logic but it is easy to say for those of us from nations with different demographics and history. Ukraine has an aging population, and young people in the workforce are essential to function as a nation. Any reduction in the draft age would have to be weighed very carefully. Any statement to widen the draft means more husbands, fathers, sons, brothers, and friends, including my own friends, being potentially sent to fight. It is not a comfortable thought, even if it may be an unfortunate reality.
It would be better to reform the army to entice more people, more motivated soldiers, and utilise those that are already to train, while also giving them some rest. Of course, as Zelensky has effectively said, it is very rich of nations like the USA to demand the lowering of the draft age if the USA and others are failing to provide the weapons they promised. I think he is entirely correct. This ties into what must be done by the international parties this year, peace talks or no.
- Lack of Security Guarantees
Ukraine needs reliable allies and solid security guarantees. I accept that the statement isn’t world breakingly new, and Zelensky has said it several times. But it bears repeating.
This would allow for the better equipment of men on the front, the ability to actually motivate potential soldiers knowing they will have the backing of other countries and the proper gear to fight. Solid commitments regarding the provision of military equipment is essential to provide Ukraine with the means to win and relates to the manpower problem as well. Further, however, it can send a strong signal of a united democratic force against Russian tyranny. It is too late for anything else, let us be honest. Even if Putin died tomorrow, the regime collapsed, and Russia became an amazing democratic country in every conceivable way, Europe needs to learn that threats are real. Russia, or other actors, may cause a wider war. The era of peace for the western world is over. I wish it were not true, but it is.
For a long time, Europe expected to be able to trade a bit with Russia, get its gas, and hope it would all work out. There are questions about how Europe, NATO and the EU approached Russia in the 00s but that is another topic. Either way, we are here, in 2025. Security guarantees show that Europe recognises there are real security threats. Whether it’s the UK, EU, or even the USA, or whoever else, unity against tyrannical regimes is a crucial step to restore the rules based order. I’d actually prefer a non-US led defence force, with its dire reputation around the planet, and now a leadership many of us are deeply critical of.
If the war continues but peacekeepers enter western areas or other parts of the country, it can free up Ukrainian defenders in other regions to concentrate on the frontline. If we have a scenario with a frozen conflict or meaningful end to the conflict, security guarantees can prevent any further russian hostilities. Whether these guarantees are in the form of NATO membership for Ukraine, integration with a European army, or defence agreements from France or UK or the EU, something has to be promised that is backed up with force. Ukraine does have potential in its own abilities to defend itself and create military gear, and unlike Russia, is growing economically in many ways and will be in a position to build back stronger if we have a cessation for a few years. But, it would be preferable if we can get proper guarantees to signal to Russia that no, you cannot invade Ukraine, or anyone for that matter.
- Military Problems
It is time for reform! I mentioned recruitment, and the ability to build back, and here is something that should have happened a long time ago, but the second beest time is now. The military at the start of the full scale invasion was very effective, decentralsed, and operated with a far different mindset from the Soviet one of the Russian army.
However, for the last 18 months or so, we have seen a much more soviet approach, especially under Syrsky. Whether its questionable attacks into Kursk (still not convinced it was a good idea), or holding on to strategically insignificant villages and ruined towns way past any reasonable point, we have seen a similar mindset to the russians.
Ukraine is in a defensive war, it wins by attrition, it doesn’t have to hold every bit of land, it just needs to make it unsustainable for Russia to keep throwing its men. Armies need to be led by younger, experienced soldiers, not people trained under the Soviet army who want obedience. We see the same problems in Ukraine as we do in Russia, with yes men, people afraid to tell the truth, foolish gambits, and a top down approach. Ukraine needs to get rid of a lot of the top brass, elevate the younger officers, decentralise, and focus on attrition as much as possible while minimising its own casualties. The efforts inside Russia have caused serious headaches, especially the drone strikes and sabotage, more of that is necessary. Stretching lines to get land on the map is a very soviet minded approach and is not sustainable, and it does not motivate people.
These are some of the biggest issues. Ukraine needs to do some urgent reforms, especially before any wider drafts. But, what do we want from the west for this year? Faster deliveries of weapons, no more red tape slowing down aid, providing what was promised and offering security guarantees as soon as possible to defend Ukraine’s sovereignty. These are not new, in a way it is frustrating to be here still. But, we are. It is just more urgent.
I said at the start, do we have reasons to be optimistic? Sure we do! Let me explain. These are reasons that Ukraine has some leverage over Russia and can remedy doomer thought that permeates many Ukraine supporters right now.
- Russia’s economy and war machine is struggling. For real.
A lot of people promised Russian collapse really early. They were naive or lying. We all wanted it. But, wanting something doesn’t make it real. However, now, Russia has some real problems. First, as mentioned, Russia has a demographic problem and relies on labour from central asia. They are not coming in the same numbers, or are even sometimes being sent off to die. This, and the loss of huge swathes of its native born population, is doing irreversible damage to its population, and will make any future mobilisations really difficult.
Second, while sanctions absolutely should have been and could be harder, they are making it difficult to replace a lot of parts. Yes, soviet gear still kills and they have a lot of certain types of equipment, but other military equipment is really running low and even Iran or North Korea can’t save them. Some have estimated this summer to be a breaking point for certain equipment. This is a serious challenge and part of why Russia is so hellbent on seizing everything it can, before, presumably, wanting to freeze the conflict.
- Zelensky knows just how to talk to Trump
While trusting Donald Trump with anything except to look like a ridiculous excuse of a bloated organism is stupid, Zelensky knows how to talk to him. He has been able to reach out to Trump and the republicans, get some more on board than some previously expected they would, and focus on strength to achieve peace. Zelensky emphasised it is russia who blocked peace processes, and that being strong (which Trump wants to be seen as) means being firm against Russia and that makes America great. That peace should be “Trump’s” victory not Putin’s.
While some statements from the Trump administration are still worrying, I do not think it will necessarily be the disaster we thought it would be. It may not be great, but it may not be as bad. See how Trump’s team managed to get Israel to finally agree to a cease fire to exchange hostages. They just used pressure and they responded. This is more a comment on Biden’s weakness, but maybe Biden was weak with Putin too and Trump can, and I fucking hate typing this as much as I hate the taste of coriander, help in a way that we didn’t expect.
- Europe is, slowly, waking up
I have said before Europe needs to wake up, and I think it is. If we have nations like Poland and France, and the UK, take the lead (sideline Germany when it comes to leadership, let them just send aid, they are not reliable and may be taken over by AFD nazis any day now, plus their fax system probably still hasn’t been updated) who take the threats seriously, and have real capabilities, to lead European integrated defence. We cannot rely on the USA, we cannot go back to the old way with Russia either. A new world is upon us. But, many are releasing this, and we have the discussions at all levels we should have had 11 years ago surrounding European independence, economically, resource, and security wise.
- Syria shows things can change fast
Russia losing its Syria access was significant. Not only did it free the people from Assad, it cut off russian access to Africa, and it showed no leader is safe. Anything can change. We have the struggle in Georgia, protests in Serbia, Venezuela, and more, against violent regimes. While the Trump shaped deformed elephant that once resembled that of the Republican party of Lincoln remains in the room, even that is more volatile because Trump is an egomaniac and unreliable. Nothing lasts, including the authoritarians of the world, whatever their nationality or ideology.
So, Ukraine has challenges, some it needs to address itself, others, allies must help with. Peace talks, if they are to happen, must seriously defend Ukrainian sovereignty and not concede on that, nor its army size, but I would argue guarantees are the most pressing need that must be addressed. No more dithering and empty statements. However, at the same time, Ukraine can go into any negotiations with some confidence, more than many realise. We will have to wonder if there is anything Ukraine could concede on, without betraying its people, but I hope that the results can be better than what some may think. It isn’t all or nothing. It isn’t Crimea by summer or complete collapse. There are a lot of aces up Ukraine’s sleeve, and Russia’s time is running out.
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