Well it is after New Year. Very different state of affairs to last year. Where people had begun to finally gather after COVID, and perhaps unsurprisingly, I got covid for the first time. Problems for many of us in Ukraine were typical. Worries about the war seemed reserved for those elsewhere than in Ukraine.
Why was that? Why did Ukrainians not worry about the war?
The answer is a combination of factors. One is that, the war already existed. It had been a reality since 2014. Certainly, outside of Donetsk and Luhansk, the war’s impact was less. There were no bombs, or sirens, or power shortages (unless, like me, you lived in a new build flat which was apparently built of paper and cobwebs). Nonetheless, there was still a sense that, yes, there is a war.
Two, the build up along the borders was not new. Putin had done it a year before. Not long before the last presidential election there were worries of an attack, and Poroshenko, quite controversially, implemented a brief sort of martial law. Every time it came for nothing. Just Russians being Russians.
The other was that Zelensky did want to keep the country calm. US intelligence did illustrate the russian build up of troops but a panicking nation would have been harder to rally. If people had jumped ship, people may not have been there to help. Either you tell people, and they leave, and the country falls apart before the invasion, or you don’t, risk their lives, but have the manpower to fight.
Additionally, I think a lot of Ukraine or Russia experts got it wrong. Now, obviously, those who like to overtly or indirectly repeat russian propaganda points were denying the possibility of conflict. What is interesting is you have those like Bryan Macdonald from RT who actually apologised for being wrong about the potential invasion before just totally disappearing from social media and journalism, and those more waffley types who like to critique NATO as much, if not more than Russia, while claiming ‘they support Ukraine’ who also didn’t predict the war either. But, more intelligent and well intentioned people also missed it. Why?
One is that I think many people considered that Russia knew that 200k men would not be able to take Kyiv, the east, and the south. That was mad right? But, we learned, info was not being given to Putin, the army was corrupt, many communication processes still stuck in the past and the social norms that come with it, i.e stay in your lane, just do as you’re told, report what you’re told, etc.
Another thing was that many experts felt the position I did, that russia wanted leverage for negotiations. Again. This wasn’t unprecedented as I said. Other saw no historical basis for such a rampant and mad invasion. I expected at most just a push in the east, to claim the rest of Donetsk and Luhansk. Clearly, I was wrong.
I think a final aspect is that for some people they didn’t trust those who were saying there would be a war. They didn’t trust the generally western media and military outlets. For many who had a distrust of governments or the west, even if they equally despised the russian government, they felt it was just western hype or justification for military expenses or something. Well, this has been a learning curve.
So yes, that is why. I felt it appropriate to reflect on this now as I reflect on how things were a year ago today.
Generally, many did not celebrate the new year with the typical enthusiasm, as you can imagine. Some did, almost as an act of defiance. However, you react to the war is entirely valid. For some, it feels inappropriate to celebrate, to live normally, and to give weight to the situation. For others, they refuse to change how they live their lives. I fully empathise with both of these views. They wrestle in your mind as well, combining guilt, anger, sadness, and righteousness. Whichever you do, you feel it’s perhaps wrong, but also want to justify it. It is a strange feeling.
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