As of writing, in the evening of the 10th of September, 2025, it is clear that Russia sent (approximately) 20 Gerbera drones into Poland, some quite deep, well past Warsaw.
People are wondering what is next. Some are demanding Article 5 and are then disappointed that it was not the immediate response. Others expect nothing to happen. Some insane people blame Ukraine somehow or peddle conspiracies, no idea. Trump offers incoherent posts that sound like a 90s comedian, “what’s with Russia violating Poland’s airspace with drones? Here we go!” as if it were “what’s the deal with russian invasions?”
Well, Poland has responded to an extent. It has asked for Article 4 to be triggered by NATO, which it has. Meaning NATO will convene to discuss threats. Whether this results in “deeply concerned” or anything tangible, I suppose, is anyone’s guess. However, Poland has also made it so the territorial forces can be summoned in some regions quickly, sent more equipment to the Belarus border, and has issued some strong statements.
Russia did not deny it. Nor did they claim they did it. Russia agreed to talk to Poland about it, and has hinted that it did not mean to do it. Meaning, they totally did it, and it’s almost certain it was deliberate because all drones were the same, it was a lot of them, and they were deep into Poland.
Other responses have been mostly words, at this point, but we will have to see.
What is interesting is that Polish stocks and currency took a dive after the attack, meaning there is some global concern about what will happen, although market speculation is always risk-averse.
What do we want as a response, is my thought? Why is Poland hesitant? Could a wider war break out?
Well, in terms of further response, the strongest response would be Article 5. This could, theoretically, lead to a direct war with Russia and NATO. The risks are obviously high here, considering nuclear weapons, and this presumably puts some fear into Poland and many others. However, I think this is not the main reason. I believe Poland, as extensive as its military is and despite the fact that it has been preparing for a war with Russia for a long time, I don’t think it trusts the USA or other NATO allies to step in, even if it did. It’s a reasonable fear.
Nothing is obviously one response, however, this first of all, is no longer an option, but it would also just tempt more and more provocations. Russia has quite possibly done this to provoke NATO, to test its resolve, its unity, etc. Frankly, considering that Poland shot down as many drones as one guy in a truck can sometimes do in Ukraine, with the might of NATO and Dutch jets, the result does not look good. But then again, I accept I was not privy to the events step by step. These weren’t simple Shaheds.
A strong response, which arguably is justifiable but short of a direct conflict, and I think a good idea, would be to: give Ukraine as much as possible, send as many NATO assets to Poland as well, and seriously consider the No-Fly Zone over at least Western Ukraine. It would signal to Russia that this cannot go on, free up Ukrainian resources at the same time, and make many people safer at night.
Perhaps, we will see more responses in the form of maybe some things going to Poland and Ukraine, some deep concern, and condemnation. Again, we do not know fully yet.
What could happen in the coming days? Well, again, the exercises with Belarus and Russia could escalate. With NATO on the border, all eyes will likely be on the Suwalki gap (The short Lithuanian-Polish border between Belarus and Kaliningrad) as that would be the target if Russia were attempting to push Belarus into war or to directly attack any of these countries. Which, if NATO is too soft, is possible.
Now, it would seem bizarre for Russia to widen the war right now when it seems to be preparing for one (last?) big push in the East of Ukraine, and it has been struggling to take even Pokrovsk. How could you deal with NATO? It’s suicidal and absurd, but then again, so was the whole invasion of Ukraine in the first place. So it cannot be ruled out.
Does it mean we have to panic? No. We should demand better of our leaders and show the world that Russia does not care about peace and must be reprimanded.
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