About two weeks ago, the social media bubble, desperate for hot takes and engagement, rushed out to get ahead of any talks, predicting doom for Ukraine. What we have had is…kind of…fine? There’s a lot we don’t know, too, and there are some things we should be concerned and attentive to, but a lot of reasons to be, relatively, cautiously optimistic.
I’m going to unpack my thoughts on the talks, the future, and some of the reasons people keep making mistakes we have seen.
The Good
- Europe is united
We had all the major European leaders in one room, backing Zelensky, and seemingly taking the threat seriously. I don’t think this should ever be discounted, even if we can always ask them to do more. It seemed for a while that many were willing to toady up to Trump, and it seems rather, they’re playing the game with him (a reality we have to face), and actually stepping up.
- Ukraine’s weapons will flow
An anxiety many had was that Ukraine would lose its military aid in the name of “peace” or “America first”. However, it seems that it isn’t a possibility at all right now. Trump is talking about how he’s “selling,” not giving, etc. But, weapons coming to Ukraine are still essential to ensure that we never experience the aid drought like we did when Johnson held up aid. We’ve not heard the dire stories from the front like we did at that time.
- Sanctions are not lifted
Trump floated lifting sanctions, yet they have not been lifted. It was a carrot to get Russia to stop. They haven’t, so they are continuing. We can demand more sanctions, and if Russia keeps things up, they may get them. This is a positive. It’s the status quo.
- Russia keeps doing exactly what Trump says he doesn’t want
Russia bombed Ukraine during a lot of these talks. That is something Trump specifically said he did not want. While Trump seems hesitant to follow up on his threats, there is a clear frustration with Russia. Zelensky played the game with Trump, even wearing a suit jacket, because apparently that’s important. Putin has not, remotely. This cannot go on indefinitely with someone as impatient and childish as Trump. He may even be seeing that Putin is not the reasonable person he hoped he was. We have to wait and see.
- Russia have weakened their demands
This is a big one, and a lot of people are unhappy. Russia has claimed that they never wanted all of Ukraine (A massive lie, but okay), and they seem to be focused on Donetsk and Luhansk, and freezing the line. While not acceptable to Ukrainians or anyone concerned with justice, this is a huge step down from demanding no NATO, no new president, no military, etc. The demands will only get weaker over time as well, not stronger. This is a positive step.
The Bad
- We still have a demented regime with too much power in the USA and Russia
Putin and the Russian government do not realise quite how bad things are, and want to keep pushing for bombed-out villages in Donetsk. They are sending men without tanks. They are running out of artillery. They are running out of a lot. Yet they are deluded into thinking they can get more.
Simultaneously, we have a senile, rambling, convicted criminal with people in his admin like a real estate agent and an alcoholic. This is not good, and I am worried about their capabilities to do anything effective, let alone morally right.
- Russia is still bombing civilians and trying to attack
The tragic reality is that a lot of people are going to die still. Ukraine needs more defensive capabilities, more offensive capabilities, too. And Russia seems unwilling to stop just yet, despite the fact that it’s hurting itself more than Ukraine. This is not me saying I want peace at any price, obviously, but it’s just a sad reality that civilians will continue to die during this mess, and many Russians are not facing justice…yet anyway.
- Russia still has some unreasonable demands.
I said that Russia have weakened their demands. But, to offer agreements that are never worth anything when it comes to Russia, to demand the south and the east of Ukraine, is still unreasonable. We aren’t at the point of serious talks that Ukraine would be willing to accept.
- We are not seeing the level of pressure on Russia that it needs
We still need more pressure on Russia, more threats, more sanctions, etc., to get them to consider actually taking things seriously and give up its cruel invasion. We need to see more of that.
So what do a lot of analysts seem to be getting wrong, which filters into the common discourse?
- Assuming Trump’s position is what it was a few months ago
Trump is not a patient man. Nor is he a smart man. But, he isn’t where he was when arguing with Zelensky. Or when he got elected. He has come around to supporting Ukraine at least at the level Biden set, and in some cases, even more (getting India to consider non-Russian fuel is a huge shift, well overdue). We have to see what happens, not what we think, because of our own reasonable hatred of Trump.
- Forgetting Ukrainian agency
Too many people fell into the trap that many have fallen into for decades: assigning agency to the big powers. People thought somehow that Trump and Putin could carve Ukraine and it would be it. How would that work? Ukraine has to agree, and if it doesn’t want to, it will fight on. It has a growing industrial-military complex, European support, and the will. If you think only the USA and Russia matter, well, maybe you should think about why. We also need to remember to pay attention to Ukraine’s capabilities. They’ve just developed their own long-range missiles, the disarmingly cutely named “Flamingo”, and are making many drones these days. It’s capable and cannot be ignored.
- Trusting Putin at his word
A lot of people listened to what Putin said and gave it credence. For years, people have rightly been mocking how Russia spins defeat as victory. Telling us black is white, and down is up. However, everyone forgot that, all of a sudden, when Putin was spinning the meetings as a great victory. In fact, his finally agreeing to go is a huge concession. If they were really about to break through and take all of Ukraine, you’d not agree to talks. They’re finally willing because, even though they are deluded regarding the scale of the disaster unfolding in their military and economy, they aren’t entirely unaware that things can’t get much better. Who cares how they spin things? We never did before.
- Not paying attention to the unfolding disaster in Russia
I will keep mentioning it because it is important. Russia is not doing well. It might finally, one day, maybe take Povkrovsk, or some other towns in Donets, but only at the expense of thousands of men. This town, for the record, was predicted to fall around a year ago, I might add. Their economy is crunching. They might even limit foreign labour to make things even worse for them. They aren’t getting the rates of migrants that propped up the economy. They’ve lost a lot of manpower. They are struggling. Their military capabilities are diminishing. Ukraine, conversely, is on the opposite trajectory, with their major issue being manpower alone. If these talks continue, if they can get dragged out, by whoever, Russia is going to be in a worse position. They are not in a good position, and it will get worse. Taking land is all well and good, but keeping it?
Ukraine will be stronger, even if there’s a ceasefire on the current lines, and has a chance to get more land back. Who knows what will happen to Russia in a year’s time?
- Not understanding how diplomacy has to work
A lot of people got annoyed at how people had to play the diplomacy game. I agree that in a just world, Putin would be in the Hague, Trump in prison, and no one would ever launch a genocidal war. But that’s not the world we live in. So, you have to play diplomatic games with leaders. Trump and the USA showing signals to Russia to strike a deal, even if you find the deals typically dumb and ineffectual (and I do too), is a part of that. Europe and Ukraine having to play the game with Trump is a reality we have to face. I don’t think being upset about readiness to talk is the issue here. We have to play stupid games because we live in a stupid world with terrible men. Unless you can tell me a realistic alternative, what else can we do?
The fundamental issue is that people don’t look at reality or suggest realistic solutions; they just view everything through their prism, fact-check from people like them, and see everything as a nail for their political hammer. We have to look at the facts, and the weird thing is, the facts are in favour of Ukraine right now, yet we gave in to doom because what, we hate Trump?
Russia is facing multiple ticking time bombs. It doesn’t realise it yet. But it will. Ukraine has more capability to succeed.
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