Europe’s time to take its place as more than a political and economic bloc is here. However, it is unclear if it’s going to take the opportunity.
As of writing, the 15th of May 2025, there are two major issues, which should be seen as opportunities. One, is what i’ve talked about previously: The Hungarian ventures in Ukraine, spying on the military positions and assessing reponses in case of a Hungarian “peacekeeping” operation.
The second is the peace talks, which seem to not involve Putin, and bode little in the way of meaningful prospects. The USA seem eager to drop out, and many are rightly sceptical are their reliability, and interests. Nonetheless, Zelensky has played the game well, proving to Trump, and the world, the best he can, that Russia is the one blocking the path to a ceasefire, and no amount of concessions, nice words, and approachment will work.
Nonetheless, European nations, mostly some of the EU and the UK, supposedly have their coalition of the willing, but seem to be going back and forth as to how willing they even are. Reneging on sanctions, tough words, and deployment, so much that it’s hard to keep track.
These countries should be leading the peace initiative, taking a hard line with Russia. They should also be with Hungary for their flagrant violations of European democratic principles. Yet, while new sanctions were passed, the response seems to be classically EU: deeply concerned.
Orban wants to crack down on his people, has made up dubious claims about Ukrainian spies, and has no interest in helping the EU until they threaten him with cutting off funds. Meanwhile, the opposition are growing and Magyar has been getting more attention. Orban is worried, The time for pressure is now, to get people into the streets. Hungary is not a functioning democracy. There is justification toisolate Hungary, promote grassroots change among the people, and back the opposition. Especially for violating Ukraijne’s sovereignty.
It is the same issue with Russia. Russia is reaching critical points with tanks and other military equipment. It is not as powerful as it wants to project. However, it does, apparently,y want to gear up for another offensive. It can only do an offensive if Ukraine doesn’t get the resolute support it deserves, or the coercion from the willing to get them to stop, and it likely is a tool to project an illusion of power. Being realistic, though, it’s not likely that it will be able to keep doing offensives in the future. It may give us an understanding that it wants one last push, and that is why Putin didn’t show up to the ceasefire talks. A cease-fire would not be that advantageous right now; it wants more land before it runs out of means. Additionally, ending the war too abruptly may be hard to spin, and will carry many ramifications for returning soldiers.
Nonetheless, the EU/Coalition of the Willing has two chances right now to exert some authority and try to take the place of the USA globally. It has the collective means to be so, militarily, less baggage in recent history, and a commitment to democracy that has disappeared from the USA. Yet, it seems, many have not got the message and seem to be waiting on Trump and the USA to sort everything, and are merely deeply concerned. The more things change, the more things stay the same.
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