If you’ve spent much time on social media, watching the news, or reading newspapers and online journals, you may get a sense of real pessimism regarding Ukraine. Some voices who were even pro Ukraine, or at least claimed to be, have now taken to long diatribes about how doomed the war is, how Ukraine can’t win, how the west is giving up, how corruption holds Ukraine back, or the government is split. It can add up, and give a sense of anger, frustration, apathy, or sadness.
So I’m saying, the dooming must end.
Don’t get me wrong. As of January 2024, we’ve just seen some of the largest strikes, causing vast devastation to civilians in Ukraine, and the war’s end does not look to be near. Ukraine is mobilising more men, and russia seems keen to send more to their deaths with increasing mobilisation. But it doesn’t mean “it’s all over! GIVE UP NOW” like some voices say. This is what I want to counter.
I am not claiming everything is amazing and it’s all propaganda. In fact, that view is what got us to the rise of the doomers. I want to go through the distinctive, but overlapping arguments these people make, although it requires a bit of sifting through some oft incoherent ramblings or propaganda fuelled articles on supposedly respected news sources. I inspect the validity of these issues, as best I can. Then, I argue, effectively, a lot of the doom and gloom is a factor of: not the feeling in Ukraine but a reflection of issues in the western allies, a result of some of the overhyped discourse we had prior to the counter offensive, a problem in how short people’s memories and attention spans are, and, of course, an element of elevation of anti-Ukraine voices.
From Copium to Hopium to Doom
Non-Ukrainians experienced the build up to the war and perceive the war very differently to actual Ukrainians. Recall how prior to the war, many Ukrainians did not believe the war would come. It was western media hype, some said. We also had many “Ukraine experts” claiming the war would not happen for a variety of reasons, some well intentioned but, clearly, naive, and others because they were carrying water for Putin and russia.
Then the 24th of February happened. Media was in overdrive saying Kyiv would fall, it would end quickly, and russia would clearly win.
But it didn’t.
This is important because the entire perception of the war was shaped by people who lacked the knowledge to accurately assess the war. At the start of the full scale invasion, we had full “doomerism” (relentless pessimism for those a bit less online) and after the repelling from Kyiv, and later with the Kharkiv and Kherson counter offensives, we went to full “Ukraine will take Crimea back in a week!” effectively. Funny thing, I never heard this much from many Ukrainians. While some, like Budanov, liked to hint at these things at times, we have to remember he is a spy, he lies. So we should never have bought into it.
This insane amount of faith in the Ukrainians to just roll over russia had many damaging results.
One is that many felt the West was doing enough. When it wasn’t, clearly. By underestimating the russian capabilities, many people just assumed Ukraine would win in a short amount of time, russia would collapse, Belarus would rise up, Moldova, Georgia, etc would expel the russians. This isn’t an insult if you felt this. I did at times. Many of us did. But it comes back to the issue of perception.
Another is that many had insanely unrealistic expectations. When the counter offensive did not take back Crimea or Melitopol in a week or whatever, when Ukraine’s casualties ramped up, when the grabs were small, people switched to immediate “doom”. They forgot, war is hard. War is horrible. This isn’t the war on terror where the west could waltz in and seize the war goals (though clearly it failed long term at stopping terror and securing the middle east, but that’s another story). We have two proper, functioning armies, backed by states. It was naive to think it would be over quickly, but people fell into that trap. We went from hope (Ukraine will take back their land fast) to cope (they are doing better than they say!) to doom (oh no it’s over) very quickly. We then got the NYT and other “respected” publications telling us how doomed it was and how Ukraine cannot win. The tone shifted.
It shifted in Ukraine too. People are tired. People are scared. Of course they are. But they don’t have the luxury of giving up. What do people do when Ukraine experiences big attacks? They raise money en-masse for the army. They can’t just give in to doom. The western media love finding Ukrainians who criticise the government, who are on the brink, and pointing to some vague idea of surrender. It’s bad journalism and devoid of context. You telling me no one in Europe in WW2 felt tired or scared?
What the Doomers Say
Anyway, let’s go through the doomer points and compare them to the realities.
- The State of the Counter Offensive
This is quite a grounded point on one hand, but lacks key context and relies on short memory. It argues that “the counter offensive has stalled. Ukraine has to concede something before it loses more. Accept some defeat for peace’s sake.
It is true the counter has stalled. Zaluzhny has even said so, and I hear stories from soldiers on the front too that things are not great. It’s not a secret. I don’t know why people act like it is.
Yet, people such as Neil Hauer called it a “failure”, which fed a load of the worst people on Twitter and elsewhere. Failure is a bad term. Russia has been losing 2000 men a day in some cases to take small towns which are totally flattened. Ukraine has been devastating the russian navy, striking Moscow, Belgorod etc. If russia was “winning” from the failure, then the mood would be triumphant. It is not. The thing they celebrated most about lately? The US Republicans blocking aid.
Can we also think how the issue is not whether Kyiv will fall, but if they can take all their land back? We are debating what can Ukraine hit in russia legitimately? People have short memories.
Did the counter-offensive fail to get the land back? Sure. No two ways about it. This should urge us to send more, not less. And it should make the west change its advice, as it clearly misunderstood how it is to fight without air superiority. Ukraine has adapted tactics, and is preparing for a counter probably later this year, or even next year. But it won’t let russia sit, which is why it’s striking the navy, airforce, and in russia itself.
- Corruption in Ukraine
Ah the good old “Ukraine is corrupt so it cannot win” argument. Or that “we cannot send more to Ukraine, look at this story of corruption!” The funny thing I always find with this argument is that it effectively a) victim blames and b) fails to consider any historical examples of corruption in war.
Yes, there is corruption in Ukraine. As there has been in many countries which transitioned from communism. While those within the EU have done a lot better at stamping it out, and democratising in general, others, such as Ukraine, have struggled. Corruption is insidious. For many, it was a way to just get things done and when you are used to it, it’s hard to stop operating within that paradigm. Ukraine has been making progress since 2014 to get rid of corruption, and the fact we hear so much about it is a sign it works. Of course, we get stories of people stealing aid, people doing schemes, etc. We see scammers too (though a lot of these are not Ukrainian I may add). However, does some corruption justify letting Ukrainians die? That is quite absurd. Blaming the victims for the state of their country, which is in part due to russia’s influence in politics and the fact the war is approaching ten years. This has made it harder for the Ukrainians to weed out corruption.
In Britain, in world war two, there were many cases of crime and corruption. I can comfortably say that every war in history has had some corruption. Whether it’s bribes to get out of service (Donald Trump famously did that), people stealing goods, criminals taking advantage of the lack of rule of law, or siphoning money, it happens. Is it good? No! But it’s very rich to think Ukraine is unique. We all see how corruption hollowed out vast parts of the russian army, for example.
So while we can and should challenge corruption in Ukraine (and elsewhere- I’m looking at you lobbyists) it does not justify failing to help. If corruption meant Ukraine couldn’t win at all, we wouldn’t have seen any successes.
- Divide in Government
This one seems to have quieted a bit now (January 2024) but a few months back there were all sorts of stories of “Zelensky and Zaluzhny are falling out”, or “Zelensky is a warmonger compared to others”. This means Ukraine is cracking and cannot hold out, many want to sue for peace, Ukraine cant coordinate etc and aid will not help.
The Zelensky is a warmonger line is funny when we remember that he was elected on the peace ticket, and in the 2019 election critics said he would give in to russia! It makes no sense. There are legitimate criticisms of Zelensky, like any other politician on earth, but that he is a warmonger is not one of them.
I think the thing here is that the US journalists are projecting their own insecurities about the divide within their country. This is a running theme in fact, that they are unable to consider a unified government, that they think the mood in their country is that in Ukraine. Of course there are often divides within government, but the idea many want to give up is just perverse.
The only person who exploited this, and by the way, was likely the source for many of the doomer articles was Arestovych. He is a egocentric weirdo, who pretends he is still an authority, when he is just some guy now, who wants to achieve fame and notoriety (now saying he will run for president). I do think the Ukrainian government likes to let him speak, to ensure that there is a sense of debate and democracy, but if anyone thinks he is a reliable source then they need to read more about him (this was a man who said the war would be over in two, three weeks maximum). If they think he, or anyone else, has a chance of leading, they also are mistaken. Perhaps in time a new, likely leader will emerge, but I dont think many people are keen for a new president with the choices available.
- The West is Giving Up
This is again a reflection of the attitude in the US, being projected everywhere. The argument is that Western aid is being slowed down, the USA has a chance of a Trump presidency, Israel is taking centre stage etc. and it’s all over. Everything here relates to the USA. Germany has stepped up, Norway has stepped up, the UK has stepped up. The EU is preparing, admittedly too slowly but still, to take the brunt of the aid for Ukraine.
This is where citizens, particularly Americans, can step up. Contact your politicians to support Ukraine, explain why security in Ukraine is in everyone’s interests, even if they want to put morality aside. US aid has massively boosted its own economy, as most money goes to production, and it saves money by sending equipment that is just collecting dust. The EU needs security, the EU needs a better military industry. It is a win-win situation to defeat russia, and become more secure.
Copium Distributors- A Dangerous Ally
I said earlier how many got very carried away with the prospects of the counter offensive. A fundamental problem is one I often rant about. The pseudo experts. While the doomers (like, Julian Roepke) claim to support Ukraine, we all know doomerism doesn’t help anything. They are inept, and operate in binaries, and work for clicks not credible journalism. But we should be as critical of the hyper optimists, the copium and hopium distributors.
By setting up unrealistic expectations, while sitting safely in the west and saying nothing but “Ukraine is amazing and will win” without demanding more aid, they set up the rise of the doomers. When someone says everything you want to hear, without any actual analysis, thought, or actions, then they are, probably, operating for their own benefit, or just out of their depth. You can believe Ukraine will win, as I do, but understand the challenges and demand more help. In fact, that is the only logical position. We need to be realistic, always, to understand how to win.
The Elephant in the Room: Hamas, Gaza, and Israel
The horrific attacks on Israel by Hamas on the 7th of October, and the resulting, controversial, attacks by Israel on Gaza, drew many people’s attention, and caused many splits within pro-Ukraine voices. This has, undoubtedly, made things feel a bit bleak. I’m not getting into the role of russia in this war, or how to solve the conflict. But, it has been a factor we cannot ignore. The response is that we have to keep promoting Ukraine, and keeping it in the public eye. Pro Ukraine people need to focus on the real goal, not get caught up in in-fighting. Of course, challenge genuinely horrific views, I’m not saying that, you are free to have your views too. But many got caught up in big online arguments about Israel, letting Ukraine go by the wayside.
What Can We Do?
- Don’t Believe the Hype and Call Out False Hope
Ultimately, we have to think of the big picture. Ukraine is hitting russia routinely, it is sinking their navy without one of its own, russia is losing thousands of men a day. Compared to February 2022. We are in a different world and a lot has been achieved. There is a lot to go, however, so the copium distributors should be challenged to. We need action, we need clarity, we need sober analysis, and to be organised.
- Reject and Challenge Doomers
This is self-explanatory, but they offer no help either. If you think things are bleak, which is fine, you have to give a degree of action, how to rectify the situation. Wallowing doesn’t achieve anything. If you say you care about Ukraine, and you have a public profile, emphasise it is not too late and push for further help!
- Commit to Supporting Ukraine
If you really care about Ukraine, you won’t give up when things get bad. In fact, that is the opposite. That just shows you cared about being trendy. For Ukrainians, they can’t give up. Sure, some lost everything and started new lives abroad to be safe and keep their families safe. But, they still deserve, and want, a homeland. Defeat is not an option for Ukrainians, and support cannot waiver. Double down, commit, donate, speak up for Ukraine, educate your friends and family, promote good causes on social media, contact your politicians. Do more”!
- Remember the Facts
Facts are everything. Ultimately, everything I discussed is an issue of people ignoring the facts. Often, they are hard to identify. Admitting when we don’t know something to me is a good sign. But, if you don’t know, don’t speculate for clicks, whether doom or hopium. Find the facts, remember context, and use that to assess the situation and what needs to be done.
Conclusion
I started writing this post a month or so ago, and even now the situation is different, better in some ways, worse in others. The mood is still sour in some spaces, and many are tired. But, this is the moment when we all have to step up more, in our own way. We don’t all have to be soldiers, we don’t all have to donate every penny, but we can all do a bit more, in our own ways, to help Ukraine and focus on Ukraine above all else. Giving in the doom is a luxury, as is wild blind optimism. We have to focus on Ukrainian victory as the alternatives, for everyone, are bleak.
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